Gold (XAU/USD) Analysis
- Geopolitical uncertainty keeps markets on edge
- Gold prices remain elevated as the bullish outlook remains intact
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Geopolitical Uncertainty Keeps Markets on Edge
The recent back and forth between Israel and Iran is the latest development in the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Many representatives to the United Nations have urged for cool heads to prevail after Iran retaliated to a targeted Israeli strike that killed two of its senior members of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
Israel has announced its intention to respond to the barrage of drones launched at the nation, keeping gold elevated and weighing on major indices, although indices are also being impacted by the prospect of rates remaining higher for longer.
Gold volatility, similar to gold prices, peaked but have recently eased lower after Iran considered the matter settled. The threat of a broad, direct conflict between two large powers in the Middle East represents a risk to the market and market sentiment. Investors may seek temporary shelter via traditional safe haven plays like the US dollar or gold – both of which remain elevated. Further stock market losses also help raise the attractiveness of the precious metal.
30-Day Implied Gold Volatility (GVZ)
Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow
Gold Prices Remain Elevated as the Bullish Outlook Remains Intact
Gold has risen in phenomenal fashion ever since the ‘morning star’ formation back in February and in spite of the recent revelation that the Fed may be delayed in cutting interest rates due to robust US data.
Gold prices spiked to the new all-time high around $2430 on Friday before pulling back and even ending the day in the red. The market remains heavily within overbought territory, something that isn’t too uncommon in runaway markets.
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Further bullish tailwinds would highlight the all time high once again which remains a possibility as long as prices remain above the 1.618% Fibonacci extension of the major 2020 to 2022 decline.
Any meaningful move to the downside would need to test the prior all-time high of $2222 to entertain a larger reversal but for now, the bullish outlook remains well intact.
Gold (XAU/USD) Daily Chart
Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow
— Written by Richard Snow for DailyFX.com
Contact and follow Richard on Twitter: @RichardSnowFX